Mon 3 Sep 2012
Relativity
Posted by anaglyph under In The News, Numbers, Philosophy, Politics, Science, Skeptical Thinking, Space, Technology
[26] Comments
While Violet Towne and I were out on our bikes yesterday, our conversation turned to philosophy and politics, as it sometimes does. Specifically, I was defending the Mars Lab/Curiosity program against her assertion that it was a waste of money when there were so many much more important issues on the political plate. Well, I agree that there are numerous pressing matters that need our attention (and money) but I was most vehement that there are a lot of other things that could lose a few pounds (metaphorically speaking) before we should start carving up great and inspiring science projects.
“For instance,” I said, “Do you realise that the 2012 Olympics cost more than twice as much as Curiosity? And that the US bank bailout was more than ten times the budget of the Mars Science Lab mission?”
I don’t think she believed me.
“Show me the numbers!” she said, defiantly.
Well, Acowlytes, you all know it’s best not to challenge the Reverend when he’s on his soapbox, even if you’re the Reverend’s wife. ((You’d’ve thought she would have figured this one out by now…)) When we had pedalled homewards, I went straight to Captain Google, and plugged in my questions. You might understand, dear Cowpokes, my utter amazement when I found my figures were wrong. Wrong by an order of magnitude. But not in the direction VT had hoped. It’s FAR worse than I had even imagined. Here ya go. I made a graph:
As you can plainly see, the budget for the Curiosity/Science Lab project is not even one pixel high on this comparison scale.
So, in order to get some perspective on how much that little rover trundling around on the surface of Mars costs, let’s examine some of those figures and related issues. First of all, it’s obvious that the military budget for the US for one year (2012) and the amount of money spent on the bank bailout are each in a completely different league to the kind of expense put aside for Curiosity. It isn’t hard to see that even NASA’s entire budget for 2012 is hardly a blip on the radar for the government accountants when compared to sums like that. What’s even more gobsmacking is that each of these figures (that is, ONE SINGLE YEAR of US military spending, or the humoungous pile of money forked out to save the US economy from the destruction wrought by the excesses of greedy and morally reprehensible assholes) exceeds the budget of NASA’s entire 50 year existence. ((Here. Do the sums.)) The yearly outlay for military air-conditioning alone exceeds NASA’s annual budget by 4 billion dollars. ((The Pentagon rejects this figure, which was calculated by Brigadier General Steven Anderson, a military logician for operations in Iraq. They have, however, not put forward an alternative anywhere I could find. I’m open to correction on this.))
The London Olympics cost, in fact, nearly 6 times more than Curiosity – not merely double as I’d thought – and we’re only talking about the money spent to stage the games. ((Arguably, some of that expense is recouped in benefits of one kind of another by the British taxpayers, but not the majority of it by any means. Equally as arguably, the Mars Science Lab program has benefits of one kind or another for the human race.)) It’s plain that large amounts are poured into the Olympics from elsewhere as well, including every participating nation’s competition expenses, and not insubstantial amounts from all the bids made by countries attempting to secure the Games every four years. That’s a frikkin’ ginormous pile of cash for a sporting event. Even if you amortize the London expense over 4 years, the yearly figure still exceeds that of the Mars Science Lab mission. Of course if we permit that, it should be fair to amortize Curiosity’s cost over the Mars Science Lab program’s lifetime (9 years), making the contrast even greater and returning an expense to the US taxpayers of $277m per year (or, less than a dollar per person per year). For 2012/13 the Australian government has budgeted over 10 times that figure for sport. ((I had trouble finding out how much the US government spends on sport. It’s either a well kept secret, or they don’t care to support the same ridiculous level of sports fantaticism as ours does.))
To put that per-person/per-dollar/per-year expense into perspective, Americans ((Canadians are also included in this figure, but even cutting it by, say, a generous third, that’s still a shitload of money.)) spent 4 times the cost of the Curiosity mission at the cinema in 2010 ((I couldn’t find anything more recent, but I think it’s safe to say that 2011 & 2011 will track that figure.)), and are spending something like $137 billion dollars a year on alcohol ((2002 figures, but I think we can probably assume that has trended upwards rather than down.)) and somewhere in excess of 30 billion dollars a year on cigarettes. In 2011, the US government spent 313 billion dollars ((This is probably a conservative estimate – it’s hard to get an exact figure due to the nature of defining the field, but I’m quoting on the conservative side. Stats here and here.)) on ameliorating the problems caused by the abuse of all that alcohol & tobacco. And, while we’re on the subject of substance abuse, coming in at a staggering 30 billion dollars, ((Depending who you ask. It’s variously quoted at somewhere between 20 and 40 billion. It’s certainly not less than 20, but it may be more than 40. In any case, I’ve erred on the probable side of conservatism and just taken the median.)) America’s so-called ‘War on Drugs’ costs the nation over 10 times the budget of Curiosity (or, nearly twice the annual NASA budget) every year and that is widely argued to be a complete waste of money. ((Here, here, and here, for just three examples of hundreds you can find.))
I could, of course keep going with this – I haven’t touched on gambling, or government inefficiency, or tax breaks for religion or a half dozen other areas where large amounts of money seem to slush around without a proper degree of scrutiny. But what does all this mean, in the end?
For me, it’s simple. As humans we can, of course, choose to put our resources wherever we like. So far, I believe that choice has always leaned far too heavily towards the things at which animals are good – being the fittest, the strongest, the fastest. Or being the greediest, the most aggressive, the most dominant. It has not served us well. The result is that we have become powerful animals facing an existential crisis, and the traits that we carry as animals – the aggression, the greed, the power-mongering – are the exact opposite of what we need to get us out of this crisis. We are starting to encounter problems that we will not conquer by being fast, or strong or fit. ((Or religious.)) Being better at animal things was once enough. Now it isn’t.
The things that humans alone are good at – the things that our brains enable us to do such as imagining the possibilities of the future, pondering the poetry of our existence, turning our curious gaze onto the mechanics of the very universe itself – occupy the very tiniest parts of the minds of most people (and therefore most governments). This ability that humans have to plan for the future by creating a mental vision of it is more-or-less nonexistant in all other animals. ((To all intents and purposes it is completely non-existant as far as we know, but that’s an area of research that is still contentious.)) So what do we do to the people who are very good at this kind of inspirational far-thinking? We vilify and undervalue them. When they tell us ‘There is a big problem with the climate and we should do something about it!’ the powerful apes get up on their boxes and beat their chests, so that they might remain popular and powerful, and the greedy apes use all the cunning that their superior brain has given them to make arguments that everything is OK and we should all just kick back and consume, and the fit and fast apes run around entertaining everyone. If we cannot use the leverage that nature has given us to come to terms with the world-destroying problems we now face, we are truly doomed. We have squandered the one advantage that we have over other animals. Our difference will have enabled us to wipe ourselves out, rather than allowed us to achieve that future which we alone can imagine.
So what has all this to do with a little vehicle pottering around in the dust of a cold world some 225 million kilometers from our home? Well, in my opinion, projects like Curiosity help us turn our gaze outward – out of ourselves and away from our tiny little human preocupations. Indeed, I think that this curiosity to know stuff that has no direct consequence to our animal existence is a marker that says that we may, perhaps, have a chance after all.
There are, of course, many areas where we might have directed the 2.5 billion dollars that went to Curiosity. Violet Towne considered that it would have been better spent going towards helping solve the climate change problem, for example. Well, I agree that climate change research is an area that could really use that kind of money. And there are numerous pressing compassionate issues that are desperately in need of money also. I hope my argument has convinced you (and her), though, that stealing the funds from visionary human endeavours like the Mars Science Lab is entirely the wrong tactic if you want to help address these probems. I want to make it quite clear that I’m not advocating doing away with sport, or stopping everyone from imbibing reality-altering substances, or even saying that we could conveniently curtail all our military spending, but to me it seems that all these pursuits – these profoundly ‘ape-like’ pursuits – are where we should look first for money that could be better off spent elsewhere. I’m pretty sure they could spare a little of the quite exorbitant amounts of cash that are currently rained down on them.
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Violet Towne fears that I have portrayed her as a Luddite here, and as somewhat anti-science. I want to assure you that she is not, and that I respect her views, and her willingness to challenge me on my own, very much. You all know that it’s unlikely I would last long with a partner who didn’t have a vibrant and informed worldview. But I think I am right in saying that, like many people, she had formed an opinion – almost entirely concocted by irresponsible and ignorant media reporting, in my view – that NASA spends excessive amounts of money on things no-one really cares about. My intent with this post is simply to demonstrate that, in the grand scheme of things, NASA’s budget is relatively well spent. It seems to me that robbing Peter to pay Paul by redistributing NASA’s budget to areas of more pressing need is a kind of madness fanned by a perplexing and distressing anti-science sentiment creeping across the world.
Let’s not forget, were it not for NASA, we wouldn’t know about climate change (see those weather satellites? radio communications? RADAR and the like? Okay, so DARPA gets some credit too, and Bell Labs, but enough said I think). Let’s not forget that without NASA, we wouldn’t even have duct tape or digital cameras. We wouldn’t have space blankets that military use to keep warm at night. We wouldn’t have lots of our modern conveniences. We wouldn’t know about tons of problems that people seem to think need fixing.
See all those satellites up there? The ones watching our clouds? The ones giving us radio and internet all over the place? the ones beaming down satellite into millions of rural homes? See those cell phone towers? Let’s not forget that, if it weren’t for the small-budget programs, we wouldn’t have any of that. Trillions of dollars and hundreds of years being a military hasn’t done half the work that NASA has done in those 50 years on one year of their budgets. That’s saying something. I think it might just be a more convincing argument.
Nevermind that one of these two guys makes an even more compelling argument, too…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmKlA_UnX8c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9kXPTwIO08
I’m not so sure your argument is more convincing, but it is certainly part of an already convincing argument. I want to reiterate that what I’m getting at is not a means-to-an-end justification, but rather, a means-to-a-betterment one. Technology for the sake of technology, or technology for the sake of business opportunity does not help us with any problems. Technology for the sake of understanding the universe better is, in my opinion, a more worthwhile goal. If our only aim is to use technology to make us into more powerful apes, we’ve just failed.
Neil deGrasse Tyson’s argument is, in effect, the same as mine. He couches it in terms of America’s ‘advancement’ but that’s just because he’s sitting in front of a Senate committee. Effectively he’s saying we need to have inspiration – a dream, if you like – to give us some kind of hope for the future, and that science (or NASA in this case) gives us that dream.
Ben Cohen’s argument just makes literal sense, but I’m sure the Republicans think he’s some kind of Communist.
If we viewed your absolutely wonderful chart (which I am going to show to everyone) as a measure of imagination, vision and the ability to sort out differences…..
thinking….thinking….
Righto, I am off to join the Bonobos who score much higher on getting along with each other, although I will miss the joy of exploring space.
Furthermore, I am simply gobsmacked by this and thank you, yes you Mr TC, sir for your work.
I KNEW military spending was OTT but this, this should be on the front page of every newspaper around the world.
Thank you from the very depths of my being (and I like to think they are very deep) for your work on this.
A chart is a lovely thing, is it not?
There are some people on this planet who should be shot into space sans life-support who are making a lot of dosh from human misery – war and home loans.
Your chart should be – everywhere. I mean I knew that there were differences and I am taking your word that this is correct info – but the scale, the scale – this is blowing my mind, dude.
You can check my sources – everything is hyperlinked. If anyone cares to correct me on figures I will amend them.
Some things are difficult to get exact numbers for, as I’ve indicated. The US spends a LOT on drug & alcohol related problems, but quantifying the figure is difficult. As you will see from the footnotes, when I’m not sure of a figure, I quote on the conservative side.
Oh, and just to add to that – even though I link one source, I also checked elsewhere for additional verification. I’ve tried to provide the source that requires the least amount of double-checking (for instance, some sources quote additional sources for you).
Also, the US spends nearly 5 times as much on the military as does its nearest rival, China.
Somehow, I am not surprised. Ammunitions are big dollars and what I have always suspected is now clearly revealed. As if the ridiculously wealthy weren’t nauseating enough.
We would have no problem with “boat people” if we stopped with deliberate war – the Taliban and their ilk would simply be a bunch of desert nutjobs instead of the notoriety they have been given by the Western World’s war machine.
Not to rain on a parade, but there is a big chart.
http://www.wallstats.com/
They used to have a free version online, but alas no more. Google is your friend, though, although I may just buy a copy this year…
Well done Sir.
I remember a few hours after Curiosity landed there was internet fury over the waste of money on NASA: “We’ve got real problems here on Earth.”
Nothing like anti-science sentiment wrapped up in fiscal conservativeness. Governments piss away billions on spurious and often ineffective programs every year, but we don’t question that, we question knowledge and understanding….
E.g. Does a multi-billion dollar organisation really need government assistance? For an organisation with $230 million profit in 2010, the AFL only chipped in $10 mill to the government’s $90 mill to develop playing ovals for AFL. http://www.afl.com.au/portals/0/afl_docs/afl_hq/annual_reports/2010/AR2010_09_FinanceAdminCorporate.pdf That $90 million is about the annual spend on the Clean Tech Innovation research funding ($200 million in grants total).
I could rant all day, or we could just watch Neil DeGrasse Tyson tell us why science should be funded.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmKlA_UnX8c
Your first sentence sums up the problem as I see it. The general public sees a little vehicle doing obscure science on another world and the very first thought that pops into their heads is ‘Well, what is the practical use of that?’ But they rarely stop and think ‘What is the practical use of the Olympics?’ or ‘What is the practical use of the ‘War on Drugs’?’ And it has to be said – there is a strong anti-science feeling among the general population. This is borne completely out of a fear of things they don’t understand – a fear that is gleefully exploited by the media in articles such as the Curiosity piece that I analyzed in my last post.
NASA cops a lot of the flak here simply because what they do is very visible. But you get the same kind of derisive snorting from the media everytime a government budget comes out and they find a million dollar grant has gone to someone to study sea snails or something. And yet, there’s beers all ’round when the budget funds another football stadium.
Sounds about right. Although, up here, the government actually makes money on most college and pro sports simply because of ticket sales, marketing, time slots, and merchandise, all of which are taxed. I don’t think our sports and government are as intertwined as yours (olympics excepted).
I don’t have figures to back it up, so this is my opinion only, but I can’t see how our government can possibly recoup money from sports. Maybe via a roundabout way through business, but certainly not directly. I know that taxpayers paid for the Sydney Olympics, even if it was less than half the cost of London, and the vaunted ‘job creation’ and ‘benefits to the city’ certainly didn’t offset the expense. Of course, once it was all over the media promptly forgot about analyzing it, and no-one seems to care that it was a big money suck. That’s sport for ya.
There have been several reports on the Sydney Olympics that have shown they cost the tax payer a lot of money and didn’t provide an economic boost nor an increase in sports participation.
I was listening to a Radio National discussion panel during the London Olympics discussing a new report that backed up the old ones. The politicians just flat out rejected the reality of the figures and analysis.
They’ll never admit it because it make them look like the stupid and ignorant ladder climbers they are. Scoring the Olympic Games is the political equivalent of buying a flashy and unneccesary new car. The people who do it think they look cool, but everyone else thinks they’re a prat.
People who buy flashy cars are marginally less reprehensible since they are wasting their own money, not someone elses.
The problems of earth have been with us for ever, are still with us and will never be really solved. Hunger, crime, war, disease, prostitution, child abuse etc etc etc etc etc etc. If we wait for the solution it will never come and the earth and humanity will just bubble on like a barrel of yeast, some on the bottom, some climbing to the surface on the backs of other yeast until we rot in our own effluvient. We MUST reach out to the universe if mankind is to survive more tham a couple hundred centuries. (I think the yeast analogy is Jack London’s ‘Sea Wolf”
We are in a battle with evolution. If we succumb to our animal instincts, then evolution wins and we will have been nothing more mechanical realisations of an inevitable progression toward extinction.
If we win, however, the universe is ours.
Right now, my money is on the first outcome. As a species, we’re just far too stupid to see an opportunity when it’s staring us in the face.
I really should have phrased that as ‘we are in a battle with natural selection‘. The concept of evolution must necessarily encompass a situation where beings evolve to such a point that they can control the mechanical processes of life.
Although, the sapiens did overcome the neanderthals. Perhaps this is merely the next logical step, the science minded folk slowly becoming the next sapiens…
none of us is as cruel as all of us, to borrow a meme. Perhaps, then, none of us is as effective as all of us. Working together, we become the next evolution. As another pointed out, perhaps we can never eliminate ignorance. Perhaps that is the fate of sapiens, and a new species is emerging….
I hate the thought of waiting another ten thousand years to really get a brighter species, though…
Well, couple of things here: sapiens outsurvived the neanderthal, but that doesn’t necessarily tell you anything much. It could have been luck. There’s a lot of luck in natural selection – being in the wrong place at the wrong time can stitch you up pretty bad. There is nothing to tell us that the intellectual capacity of the neanderthal was inferior to sapiens. In fact, it is possible that neandethal were actually smarter than sapiens, but sapiens was simply more aggressive, more adventurous and luckier. Intelligence is no guarantee of survival.
Second – we don’t need to wait ten thousand years. We are on the verge of being able to control evolution. This is the depressing thing – some of us can see the kind of amazing future we could have, but it will never happen while the rest of us remain stupid. So far, all that is happening is that natural selection is proving to be stronger than intelligence. We shall see how that plays out within a few generations is my guess.
Yes, all very good, but I am still in shock that VT questioned you.
I love her to bits.